A few days ago, a new poll came out showing Donald Trump has lost the Americans who won him the last election: men. Trump beat Harris in 2024 among all men by 13 points. He is now losing them by 7 points. He won men under the age of 45 by 5 points, but the same poll shows he is now down with these guys by a whopping 19 points.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand why. Trump isn’t just not keeping his campaign promises… he is actively going the other way on them.
The biggest issue is obviously the economy. 47% of young men, when asked the question, “What does it mean to be a man?” answered with “providing for your family”. You can’t even think about starting and providing for a family if you cannot afford a home, gas, and groceries. Trump’s campaign hammered Biden on high costs, he promised to lower them, and he recently told a crowd in Georgia that was the reason he won.
But in just the short lifespan of his second term, he’s completely fucked up the issue.
Taxes, in the form of the tariffs that he laid on Americans, have raised costs for sectors like construction, manufacturing, and mining. The vast majority of workers in these industries are men. So when Trump loses over 70,000 manufacturing jobs in his first year as president, that’s not the best way to woo the guys who count on them. And when young men constantly rate finding an affordable house as one of their top priorities and the price of a new house goes up $10,000 because of tariffs, that doesn’t get them in your good graces either.
The Iranian War, though, takes this anger to a whole new level. For years, Trump ran on the promise that he would stop America’s endless wars. Young people (including men) overwhelmingly support this idea, as they are much less likely than older generations to agree with troop deployments abroad.
However, Trump chose to break his promise and the war in Iran is having devastating consequences. Gas prices are already up to almost $4 per gallon on average, jumping more than $1 in the last month. Since 88% of pickup truck owners are dudes, that does not feel good for them at the pump.
The shock comes from other places, too. 70% of goods we buy are shipped by truck, so higher fuel prices means almost everything guys like, from video games to steaks, costs more.
About 15% of the US supply of fertilizer comes from the Middle East. So, while the war hurts oil prices, it also means farmers (another male-dominated industry) have to pay much more to grow their food. This hurts both them and the regular joe buying burger meat for Memorial Day BBQs.
All of this also increases costs for men who want to buy a house. Higher mortgage rates from market uncertainty make purchasing a home way more expensive, and unfortunately rates have surged since the start of Trump’s war in Iran.
This is both killing Trump’s overall approval numbers, and eroding the energy Republicans need from young men to win a midterm election. Recent polling on the midterm elections show young men support generic Democrats by an almost 2-to-1 margin over Republicans.
In the short term, should all of these trends continue, a political strategy of opposing Trump will almost certainly be enough for Democrats to win the House of Representatives in November. The numbers may even get so bad that states like Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and even Texas could possibly elect Democratic Senators… something unthinkable a few months ago.
However, just leaving it here isn’t good enough. Many men still don’t trust Democrats, feeling that they seem “invisible to the Democratic Coalition” and that the left has no interest in seeing straight men succeed. The damage Trump is doing, though, creates an opportunity for Democrats to show them otherwise. By creating better situations in schools, health care, and the economy, Democratic leaders can create better lives for men who’ve seen many of their traditional jobs fade away, their spaces disappear, and their sons and younger brothers do worse than girls in schools. This also has political benefits, which can translate to better outcomes at the polls past 2026.
How does this get accomplished?
First, go where the guys are. Both Sen. Bernie Sanders and Senate candidate James Talarico have gone on The Joe Rogan Experience in the last year, and have done well. Since Rogan is the highest-rated national podcast for young men, this is smart.
Men also like sports, and Sen. Mark Kelly has been on The Dan Lebarard Show twice in the last few months. This show is ranked #1 in Apple’s sports podcast rankings and just last week Kelly used this opportunity to discuss the Iranian War, airport waiting lines, affordability issues, how AI creates dangers for elections, and the Arizona Cardinals QB situation. Hakeem Jeffries used the same platform in December to talk about the government, politics, and the NY Knicks’ bench rotation strategy.
This is also smart. Keep it up, and don’t be afraid to do more.
Second, the left needs to acknowledge the problems many men in the country are facing, and tackle them head on. The good news? This has already started to happen in the past few months:
At the end of last year, MD Governor Wes Moore found $19 Million in his state budget to recruit and retain more male teachers in the state’s schools, as the lack of male role models is one of the biggest issues for boys at the K-12 level.
MI Governor Gretchen Whitmer has a goal of getting 60% of state residents a postsecondary certificate by 2030, and has focused on the man-heavy construction trades. Recently, her Dept. of Labor allowed registered apprentice classes in the trades to count as credit towards an Associates Degree.
In January, NJ Governor Mickie Sherrill announced a plan to convert office parks to new affordable housing developments. Finding a place to live is critical to young men, where 52% of them currently live with their parents.
In March, the VA State Legislature passed a bill creating a Boys and Men’s Advisory Commission that will look at ways to address educational inequalities, why men suffer more health issues than women, and how social media use hurts us. Governor Abigail Spanberger is expected to sign it soon.
There are also folks working on improving outcomes for men at the federal level. A bill to create an office specifically looking at the health of American men has been introduced in Congress. It highlights the health disparities between men and women that has grown wider in recent years as more men die of suicide and overdose.
This bill, however, shows how far much farther we can go. It has not even received a hearing, reflecting a larger trend in American society. Barack Obama eloquently explains,
“What we’re learning is that when we don’t think about boys and just assume they’re going to be OK because they’ve been running the world and they’ve got all the advantages relative to the girls – and all of which has historically been true in all kinds of ways. But precisely because of that, if you’re not thinking about what’s happening to boys and how they are being raised, then that can actually hurt women… And I will say, as ‘ progressives,’ Democrats, progressive parents, enlightened ones, we’ve made that mistake sometimes in terms of our rhetoric. Where it’s like we’re constantly talking about what’s wrong with the boys, instead of what’s right with them.”
While the work these Governors and some members of Congress are doing is outstanding, it is still a drop in the bucket for the work that needs to be done with housing, education, health care, and helping guys get good, productive jobs. If Democrats, in addition to other educational and non-profit institutions, show real leadership in addressing issues that men and boys care about, our communities as a whole will improve as men can transform from being distrustful and angry to more thoughtful and productive citizens.
And it wouldn’t be a bad idea for winning elections either.